2008 politics lackluster to many junkies
Published 11:40 am Wednesday, October 10, 2007
By By Steve Flowers
Historically congressional and legislative districts have been redrawn every 10 years when new census figures are taken. However, the U.S. Supreme Court in a landmark decision last year opened the door for legislatures to reapportion congressional and legislative districts at any time rather than every decade.
The decision arose out of the Texas legislature where the Texas republicans, after gaining majority status, abruptly redrew their congressional lines to gerrymander longtime democratic congressmen out of office. The nation's highest tribunal upheld this mid-term gerrymandering and it is now the law of the land.
When the democratic majority in the Alabama State Senate adopted their rules for this quadrennium one of the sticking points that republicans complained about was a rule change which made it difficult for the republicans to stop a reapportionment effort during this term. It only takes a simple majority of democrats to pass a reapportionment bill out of the senate. This rule change was made with an eye to possibly changing the lines prior to the 2010 elections. They figured what was good for the republican gooses in Texas was good for the democratic ganders in Alabama. Rumor has it that this move may be afoot for the February regular session.
The recent revelation that Second District Congressman Terry Everett will retire next year may prompt a move for an early redistricting effort by the legislature. There will be a bevy of aspirants for the seat. However, the eventual victor's tenure may be short lived. Even if the legislature does not intervene, early census figures suggest that Alabama may very well lose a congressional seat after the 2010 census. This district would be the top choice for the chopping block.
My observation over the years with any reapportionment effort is that partisanship becomes secondary to self-preservation. Most legislators look out for themselves first and their party second. Therefore, any move will be arduous and difficult to pass. If and when one does occur it will reflect the growing trend of creating more extremely partisan districts that are either very republican or very democratic.
In addition to the open congressional seat, next year's state elections will feature our junior U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions seeking his third six-year term. State Senator Vivian Figures of Mobile says that she wants to make the race and be the Democrats token sacrificial lamb. Sessions, who is also from the Port City, should have clear sailing for reelection.
Public Service Commission President Jim Sullivan's post is up next year. There have been rumors that he will not run. If he decides to run he should win easily.
The big race will be for the place of retiring Justice Harold See. See's seat is the only one of the nine Supreme Court seats up for election next year. See announced that he would not seek reelection during the summer. It could be an all female race. The democrats could field Deborah Paseur, a District Judge in Lauderdale County. Reportedly Court of Criminal Appeals Judge Kelli Wise is being courted by some republicans to be the GOP standard bearer. However, the big name tossed out is the Governor's Finance Director, Jim Main. Main who enjoyed a successful legal career prior to joining the Riley administration would be the odds on favorite to win the See seat on the Supreme Court if he chooses to make the race.
With 2008 being a lackluster year most political junkies are looking to 2010 when the Governor's office comes open. Jim Folsom Jr. appears to have the way paved for a clear uncontested march to the democratic nomination. His two obvious challengers supposedly have resigned to not challenging Folsom. Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks and House Speaker Seth Hammett have told friends and supporters that they will not challenge Folsom. The Lt. Governor's race is the most viable option for the Hammett and Sparks duo. Luther Strange is poised for another run at the number two spot on the republican side.
That leaves the GOP gubernatorial slot a coveted and very open position. The early names mentioned, Mike Hubbard, Rob Riley and Bradley Byrne, are all lightweights that do not excite many GOP stalwarts much less independent voters. However, a new name being promoted around the state is Troy University Chancellor Jack Hawkins. Hawkins possesses the charisma and stature to catapult to the top of the pack. He also has the fundraising expertise which is necessary in today's political world.
See you next week.
Steve Flowers is Alabama's leading political columnist. His column appears weekly in 70 Alabama newspapers. Steve served 16 years in the State Legislature. He may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.